California's gubernatorial race is heating up but a Republican victory is still very unlikely
New polling shows what everyone would expect in California's gubernatorial race: Democrats are leading. The dreams of a Republican governor of California don't hold up to historical data.
There is a lot of chatter about the gubernatorial race in California. The top-two primary system, also called a jungle primary, has conservative voices on social media claiming that California is poised to have a Republican governor. For months, former Riverside County sheriff and Oath Keeper Chad Bianco was leading the pack. Second was Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator from the United Kingdom. Republicans really thought that they had something cooking in the Golden State, but claiming an early victory that never materializes is typical of the California GOP. New polling shows that the dream of a Republican-only race for governor in California is quickly evaporating.
Sorry, Republicans. The new frontrunner for California governor is a Democrat
For months, polling numbers showed a rare Republican two-way race in the top-two primary. A top-two primary is when all candidates for an office run against each other in the primary. This means that there is no Democratic or Republican primary for a two-party matchup for the general election. This is a rare primary structure that is only used in a handful of states. California and Washington both use a top-two primary system. Louisiana has what is called a classic jungle primary, where all of the candidates run on the same ballot, and only the one with more than 50 percent of the vote wins. Otherwise, there is a runoff. In Alaska, there is a similar system, but the top four candidates go into a ranked-choice voting runoff.
Previous polling showed Chad Bianco, a former sheriff from Riverside County and an unapologetic former member of Oath Keepers, and Steve Hilton, a conservative political commentator born in the United Kingdom, leading the large pack of gubernatorial hopefuls. This had Republicans hyped that they might take the governorship in California.
New polling from Emerson dashed those hopes this week when it was reported that Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is now leading the pack with 17 percent. Meanwhile, Hilton remained in second place with 13 percent, and Bianco dropped to third place with 11 percent. Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer is tied with Bianco for third place. Katie Porter, who was the favored candidate and the first to announce her candidacy, is in fifth place with 8 percent. So far, 25 percent of voters are still undecided and likely deciding on which Democrat to support.
The possibility of a Republican governor for California is very slim
The California GOP has been relying on a potential lockout scenario to win the California gubernatorial race. While it is technically possible, it is also an almost impossible situation. The gubernatorial race is filled with a lot of hopefuls.
There are currently nine Democrats in the race for governor. When you add up the polling numbers between Swalwell, Steyer, Porter, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Xavier Becerra, it accounts for 42 percent of likely voters. Meanwhile, the only Republicans in the mix account for 24 percent of potential voters.
For reference, Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters in California by almost double. There are 10,398,558 registered Democrats in California compared to 5,845,164 registered Republicans.
History shows that Californians aren’t into the Republican Party
Conservative pundits and social media users were obsessed with telling everyone that California is turning red. It would be an impressive feat if Republicans could somehow flip the Democratic stronghold. However, the data and history are not on their side. While they point to maps with large red districts, population numbers are important. The red areas of California are largely rural with fewer voters than major metropolitan areas, like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
When you dig into the historical data, the idea of a Republican governor becomes even more unlikely. The last Republican governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was elected during a recall election in 2003 and won reelection in 2006. He served until 2011 and left the state in bad shape. Schwarzenegger left office with a 23 percent approval rating, a $28 billion deficit, and an economy in ruins.
To put this in even clearer terms, Schwarzenegger was elected as governor the last time in 2006. Coincidentally, 2006 was the last time that California voters elected a Republican to a statewide office. By 2022, no Republicans have come within a 10-point margin of winning a statewide office.
As the race narrows, the Democratic lead will grow
With so many Democrats running for governor in California, the numbers right now aren’t telling the true story. California is strongly Democratic and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. The Republican Party's rebrand to MAGA and anti-immigrant doesn’t play well within the state. The last thing that Californians want is a state-level government that functions like a Trump administration.
Two out of three California voters do not approve of the president’s job. More specifically, a large majority of voters in California said that political extremism or threats to democracy, economic conditions, and immigration are important problems facing the nation with President Donald Trump in the White House. Three out of four believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction. These fears and opinions spell a worsening situation for the California Republican Party, which is already weakened due to the national Republican Party’s message.
Additionally, none of the low-ranking Democratic candidates would want to be the spoiler that would usher in a Republican state government these days. If any of them want to have a future career in California politics, the right thing to do is to suspend their campaigns and put their support behind the leading Democrats in the field. Once that happens, the fantasy of a Republican winning the 2026 gubernatorial race in California will fully evaporate. Till then, pay attention to the numbers, not the loud voices.